Rain is expected on the second day of the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, and while Helmut Marko has spoken confidently about the possibility of a repeat of last year’s miracle win, Max Verstappen remains cautious. He pushed back against the idea that wet conditions automatically favour Red Bull.
Verstappen said that nothing about a wet track guarantees an advantage. His reasoning is simple. McLaren has been the strongest team in every rain-affected race this year, and their tyre management has consistently outperformed the Red Bull RB21.
“Racing in the rain is always a lot riskier,” Verstappen said. “Sometimes it can work to your advantage, but sometimes it can work against you. McLaren have been very good this year at preventing overheating on the intermediate tyres, so just because it rains doesn’t mean we’re going to win.”
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McLaren’s perfect record in wet races
The results speak for themselves. McLaren has taken the win in all four wet-influenced races this season.
• Australian Grand Prix: Norris beat Verstappen
• Miami Grand Prix: Norris again took the win
• British Grand Prix: Verstappen spun after the restart, Norris and Piastri finished one-two
• Belgian Grand Prix: Piastri held off Norris for another McLaren one-two
McLaren’s strength lies in how long they can sustain intermediate tyres without overheating. Red Bull has repeatedly struggled in this area, especially when track conditions change rapidly.
This is the opposite of recent seasons, where wet races often tilted in Verstappen’s favour. In 2025, the balance has shifted.
A comeback still alive, but the road is narrow
The new Red Bull floor introduced at Monza transformed the team’s performance, helping Verstappen reduce a once-hopeless 104-point deficit to 36 points. With four races remaining, including two sprints, a theoretical maximum of 116 points is still available.
But Verstappen is realistic about what it will take.
“We’re still 36 points behind and the gap is still big,” he said. “We’ve done a really good job in the last few races, but to close the gap further we need to finish ahead of them every weekend. That will be our biggest challenge.”
Even with momentum on his side, the margin for error is almost nonexistent. McLaren has been consistent, quick, and particularly strong in the rain. That makes the forecast for Interlagos more of a danger than an opportunity.
Weather could reshape the title fight
The assumption that rain favours Verstappen is outdated for this season. In 2025, wet conditions have consistently amplified McLaren’s strengths, not Red Bull’s. That shift is why Verstappen refuses to rely on last year’s blueprint.
As the title race tightens, the weather in Brazil could become the deciding variable. For Verstappen, any rain this weekend is less a lifeline and more a warning sign.
