Uncertainty surrounds Yuki Tsunoda’s 2026 Formula 1 seat as major international media outlets publish conflicting predictions about Red Bull Racing’s driver lineup. This contrast in reporting is unusual. In past years, early signals and reliable leaks would surface well before Red Bull made official announcements. This time, no such information has appeared, suggesting a shift in how decisions are being made inside the team.
Table of Contents
A Divided Media Landscape
English-speaking media, especially in the United Kingdom, largely report that Isaac Hajar is on course for promotion from VCARB to Red Bull Racing. Autosport has described the move as almost certain. The Race echoed this view, saying that promotion is widely expected inside the paddock. Sky Sports reporter Ted Kravitz has discussed Hajar as if the decision is already made. Martin Brundle has questioned the risks of promoting him ahead of the 2026 regulation reset but has also pointed out that Tsunoda’s time within the Red Bull system may have run its course.
New Zealand media naturally take the same position because the decision directly affects Liam Lawson. American outlets remain cautious but lean toward Hajar being the likely choice.
By contrast, German, Italian and French outlets paint a more balanced picture. Italy’s Autosprint noted that Hajar is likely to receive a seat at Red Bull or VCARB but stressed that nothing is final. Sky Sport Italy suggested a fifty percent likelihood of Hajar partnering Verstappen and a significant chance that Tsunoda could stay. Canal Plus reported that no decision has been made and that Tsunoda’s future depends on performance. Motorsport-Magazin ran predictions from seven editors, with four expecting Tsunoda to remain at Red Bull. Even writers who support Hajar’s promotion admit that he may struggle against Verstappen, the same concern raised with Tsunoda.
Why Predicting the Decision Has Become Difficult
In previous years, Red Bull’s internal information flows were shaped by Christian Horner and Helmut Marko. Reliable hints or leaks would surface before announcements. That pattern has completely changed. After the death of Dietrich Mateschitz and Horner’s departure, Red Bull Racing came under direct ownership of Red Bull GmbH. The structure no longer includes an intermediate holding company, and the number of people involved in top-level decisions has increased.
Red Bull GmbH added Global HR Director Stefan Zalzer to the Red Bull Racing board this year. He joins Marko and team CEO Laurent Mekies. Zalzer’s involvement signals that personnel decisions may now follow corporate oversight rather than the informal, personality-driven style that characterised previous eras. Executive influence now includes corporate leadership such as Oliver Mintzlaff and the Mateschitz family. The result is less information leaking from internal discussions. What circulates in the paddock today is mostly speculation without direct backing.
Factors Beyond Track Performance
Tsunoda’s future will not be decided by performance alone. Several structural factors shape the discussion.
Marko, who is viewed as a strong supporter of Hajar, tends to push for young drivers with long-term potential. Mekies, who previously ran Tsunoda at VCARB, takes a more conservative and stability-focused approach. Their relative influence is unclear, and the expanded decision group means neither has complete control.
The shift to the Red Bull Ford power unit in 2026 adds more uncertainty. With a new engine package and unknown competitiveness, Red Bull must plan beyond simply fielding a strong teammate for Verstappen. They must consider the possibility of Verstappen leaving if the package underperforms and may prioritise a long-term successor. That could favour a younger prospect like Hajar, but it could also favour Tsunoda if the team wants experience and stability during a volatile transition.
Tsunoda’s link to Honda remains another point of consideration. Honda ends its direct partnership with Red Bull after this season, but both sides maintain technical connections for older car programmes. That relationship may offer Tsunoda limited but meaningful additional value inside the organisation.
A Decision That Cannot Be Predicted From the Outside
At this stage, no external source knows what Red Bull’s final choice will be. Without insider-supported information, the only certainty is that Tsunoda’s ongoing performance will play a major role. Interlagos, the site of his best qualifying result, arrives at a critical moment. His ability to deliver under pressure could influence the final call when the decision is made.
An official announcement is expected around the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Until then, every prediction remains speculation. All that remains is for Tsunoda to perform and make his case on track.
