Respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has recently taken to Twitter to share his insights on Apple’s future plans. He states that he is “positive” that the tech giant will be launching a new, foldable iPad with an all-new design and a carbon fiber kickstand next year. According to his sources in the supply chain, Kuo is confident in this proclamation, which is rare for an analyst who often err on the side of caution.
Despite the lack of detail from Kuo, there are already rumors that Apple is working on an iPad that is larger than the 12.9-inch iPad Pro, potentially as big as 16 inches. However, it is not clear how the company will market the device or how compact it will be when folded.
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Thus, I'm taking a cautious approach to iPad shipments for 2023, predicting a YoY decline of 10-15%. Nevertheless, I'm positive about the foldable iPad in 2024 and expect this new model will boost shipments and improve the product mix.— ??? (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) January 30, 2023
At present, there are several folding phones available in the market from brands such as Samsung, Motorola, and Oppo, but Apple has yet to launch a folding device. Samsung has sold nearly 10 million folding phones in 2022, but the market for folding phones still represents only a small fraction of total phone sales.
The carbon fiber kickstand that Kuo mentions is expected to be “lighter and more durable.” It is not yet clear if he is referring to a feature of the iPad itself or an accessory, as Apple has never produced a device with a built-in kickstand. Although the recently launched Magic Keyboard Folio includes a kickstand, this is an accessory, not a built-in feature.
There is limited information available on the folding iPad, including whether it will have an external display to use when folded, like the Galaxy Z Fold, or how it will close without leaving a gap. Samsung’s folding devices all have a small U-shaped opening when closed due to the hinge, which is a design choice that Apple is unlikely to emulate. A recent patent by Samsung shows the company developing a “water drop-type hinge” that allows the case to fold flush, but this has yet to be incorporated into a shipping product.
According to Kuo, the folding iPad will follow an unprecedented lull in releases, with over a year potentially passing without a new iPad. Apple recently launched the M2 iPad Pro and the tenth-generation iPad in October, but Kuo does not anticipate any new models for the next 9-12 months. He expects the iPad mini, which was last updated with a complete redesign in September 2021 and will likely feature little more than a new processor, to start mass production in 1Q24.
