Max Verstappen walked out of the Dutch Grand Prix with a deficit of 104 points. At that moment the championship looked beyond reach. Four wins would not have closed the gap. Most observers assumed the run of titles would end.
That changed when Red Bull introduced a new floor at Monza. The RB21 returned to form and Verstappen responded with victories in Italy, Singapore and Las Vegas. Three wins in five races have removed almost seventy points from the gap. With four events left, including two sprints, the race is open again.
If he completes the job, it will be the largest comeback in championship history.
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The numbers that keep the title alive
After the Las Vegas round the gap dropped to thirty six points. A maximum of one hundred and sixteen points remain across Sao Paulo, Qatar, the Abu Dhabi sprint and the Abu Dhabi final. On paper the mathematics are clear. Verstappen still has a route to the title.
He has done it before. In 2022 he overturned a forty six point deficit to Charles Leclerc. The current run has been even sharper. In six races he has erased more than double that margin.
The form is strong enough to justify the belief inside Red Bull that the fight is not over.
Why a self controlled title is no longer possible
The situation is simple. Even if Verstappen wins all remaining races and both sprints, the title stays out of reach if Lando Norris finishes second in every session. In that case Verstappen falls six points short.
This is why the scenario requires more than perfect execution. It requires external events that disrupt McLaren.
The Sao Paulo round gives an early example. If Norris wins both the sprint and the main race and Verstappen finishes second in both, the gap moves to fifty points. Even a clean sweep in Qatar and Abu Dhabi would not be enough if Norris keeps scoring second places.
Verstappen summed it up clearly.
“We need to continue our perfect weekend.”
The margin for error is zero.
Why Red Bull still believes the story is alive
Helmut Marko has pointed to two areas that keep Verstappen in the frame.
First is Sao Paulo. Interlagos has produced several unpredictable races and Verstappen has a strong record there. Last year he won from seventeenth on the grid after more than two hours of mixed conditions. Marko told RTL that rain would increase Red Bull’s chances of finishing ahead of both McLarens.
Second is the internal pressure at McLaren. Norris and Oscar Piastri are still learning how to manage the final phase of a title fight as a pair. Marko noted that the team’s equal driver policy and several close on track moments between them may influence the run in.
“The two have had several brushes with each other and this could be key to the title fight. This shows how much pressure is on both drivers at the end of the season.”
With four races left, the shape of the championship can still change quickly. Verstappen cannot rely on arithmetic alone, but the momentum since Monza has been clear. The possibility of a fifth consecutive title remains open.
